For GOP, Bad Gets Worse in Northeast
Incumbents Shy From Party and President
By Jim VandeHei
PHOENIXVILLE,
"It is a combination of things, from
the war in
The
Sounding very much like Gerlach, state
Sen. Raymond Meier, a Republican running
for an open seat in Upstate New York, observed: "People around here
are anxious and concerned not just about the national state of affairs, but
also their personal state of affairs. As a Republican candidate, the challenge
is to show you have even a clue about what their lives are like."
Also sounding very much like Gerlach is
Rep. Rob Simmons. His eastern
Connecticut seat is the most Democratic-leaning district in the country
still held by a Republican. "My friend calls me Salmon Simmons . . .
because I am always swimming upstream" against a Democratic current, he
said.
Last week's defeat of Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, a
Republican losses in the region could
echo well beyond the 2006 campaign. Because much of the region is tilting
Democratic, history suggests Republicans would find it hard to recapture seats
once lost.
That is why GOP operatives in
In
One reason Republicans understand the
risk is that they were beneficiaries of a strikingly similar regional upheaval
a decade ago.
Before the 1994 elections, when
Republicans won control of the House for the first time in 40 years, Democrats
held dozens of Southern districts in which the electorate had been gradually
growing more conservative. That year, Republicans picked up 20 of those
Southern seats, including several held by Democratic incumbents who -- like
Northeast Republicans today -- tried to distance themselves from an unpopular
White House and Congress controlled by their party.
Many of those Southern seats are
afterthoughts in elections today because the districts are so solidly
Republican. Simmons, who plays up his connections to organized labor, a
traditionally Democratic interest, said a similar purge of Northeast
Republicans would only exacerbate the polarized
GOP moderates have long felt marginalized
by the conservative-dominated House Republican Conference. Late last year,
however, Republican leaders realized they needed to soften some of their
proposals or risk losing Northeastern seats. They reluctantly added money to
the 2006 budget for job training and other programs pushed by the most liberal
Republicans in Congress. They held a vote to expand stem cell research, a popular idea among
moderates that was vetoed by Bush.
Last month, Republican leaders passed a $2.10 increase to the minimum wage, a powerful
political issue in the struggling industrial towns. It was defeated in the
Senate because it was linked to a cut in estate taxes.
"Our Republican conference needs to
do more to put forward an agenda on health care, education and the
environment," Gerlach said. "Those are important issues in the
suburbs."
Here in
Standing on a boat landing at a recent
campaign event, she planted her shoe in a gob of melted gum. But she quickly
went on to stick Gerlach with something the candidate's internal polls suggest
is worse -- alleging the incumbent "has been a reliable vote for the Bush
administration . . . and not stood up for the 6th District."
C. Ray Kalbach, 81, lifelong district
resident, is receptive to the appeal. "My total commitment is to unelect
all incumbents, period," said Kalbach, a self-described independent. He
said he is fed up with Gerlach and "words spoken in one manner and actions
done in another."
The district is a microcosm of other
suburban areas in the region, a mixture of wealthy, GOP-leaning communities in
This the second time Gerlach is facing
Murphy, a lawyer and mother of two children, and a skilled campaigner. In 2004,
Gerlach beat her by about 6,400 votes (51 percent to 49
percent). Both candidates have raised about $2 million, plan to raise at
least $1 million more, and are going for the jugular in campaign speeches and
television ads.
Murphy's issue conflicts with Gerlach are
somewhat amorphous, apparently by design. She would repeal some of Bush's tax
cuts, including those for people earning $200,000 or more, but support others.
Murphy slams Gerlach for "utterly failing" to stand up to Bush on the
Pressed, she said Democrats "start
from maybe worse than a blank slate" when it comes to having a national
security plan. "Voters do not feel that they have that definition."
She calls herself a moderate, more a
"Rendell Democrat than a Pelosi Democrat" -- drawing a bit of
distance from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, a liberal.
"Political conversation has become
so polarized, so emotional," said Susan Bolton, a computer professional in
the district. "When people liken Bush to Hitler, I see a lot of
similarities myself."
Others are unfazed. "It is the
lesser of two evils," said Jerry Cobb, a Republican retiree who has lived
in the district for 45 years. "I am not a Gerlach man, but I will probably
vote for him" because of -- not in spite of -- his ties to Bush.
"They are having a good old time bashing George Bush," but it won't
work on him, he said. Most voters interviewed in the area seemed unaware of the
race -- or uninterested.
The Gerlach campaign calls the Democratic
candidate "liberal Lois" and warns she will raise taxes if elected.
Amy Bonitatibus, who took a leave from Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's office to assist Murphy, said the
charge, while not true, "resonates" with many voters here. Gerlach,
who served in the state House and Senate before winning his seat in 2002, has
said the two biggest issues are gas prices and immigration -- two areas in
which he highlights differences with Bush.
Still, for Democrats to pick up the 15 seats needed to take control of the House, they may need
the discontent to spread beyond the suburbs and into the conservative towns and
rural communities of Upstate New York.
Meier, 53, is struggling to hold a seat
that has gone Republican for a half-century. New
York's 24th is not the kind of suburban, well-to-do country that is causing
problems for the GOP elsewhere. It is more like the industrial
Rep. Sherwood L. Boehlert, an influential moderate Republican
who chairs the Science Committee, has represented the district since 1982.
Several times, he beat back conservative primary challenges by convincing
voters that his ability to win funding for pet projects -- such as turning
Griffiss Air Force Base into a technology center -- was more important than
such social issues as his support of abortion rights.
In a normal environment, Boehlert's
decision to retire this year might open the door for a more conservative
Republican, such as Meier, to lock down the district, where Democrats have
40,000 fewer registered voters. But Meier said there is nothing normal about
2006: "It's a challenging year as a Republican."
In a break with the GOP election-year
strategy, Meier said he is largely avoiding wedge issues such as same-sex
marriage that party leaders are promoting in
Michael A. Arcuri, 47, is the district
attorney from
To emphasize this point, Arcuri is
running as a "Boehlert Democrat," highlighting how he shares the
retiring GOP congressman's views on abortion, stem cells, tax cuts and energy
policies, which are not coincidentally different than Bush's. "There is a
huge difference between Boehlert and Meier," Arcuri said.
Reba L. Taylor, a former Democrat who
serves as the Republican mayor of Dryden, said there is widespread frustration
with Republicans in the area. "They have been a complacent, ruling party
too long," she said. "A lot of them have not been touchable for a
long time."
But
Said Boehlert: "It will be more of a
challenge than in the past, but it won't be insurmountable."
© 2006 The Washington Post Company